Wire and cable industry, the amount of copper saturation trend?

China's electrical industry has formed a system with complete categories, large scales, and a certain level of technology. It has become an important pillar industry in the manufacturing equipment industry, providing guarantees and equipment support for the rapid development of the national economy and the construction of major national projects.

In 2017, the electrical industry achieved a total industrial output value of more than 6 trillion yuan, accounting for about a quarter of the entire machinery industry. The main business income was 5.6 trillion yuan and the profit was 344 billion yuan. The total import and export volume was 160.4 billion U.S. dollars, ranking first in the machinery industry. The output of major technical equipment represented by large-scale power generating equipment and UHV power transmission and transformation equipment ranks first in the world, and its technical performance has reached the international advanced level. Among them, the annual output of China's power generation equipment exceeds 100 million kilowatts for 12 consecutive years, and the annual output of transformers exceeds 10 billion kVA for 10 years in a row, which can be considered a miracle of the world.

The main bottlenecks faced by the industry are the following: First, continuous innovation capability: lack of R&D investment; lack of general technology research system; forward-looking and basic common technology research lags behind industry development; patent quantity and quality and developed countries have Obvious gaps. The second is quality and efficiency: Basic research on product reliability and testing methods have become bottlenecks that hinder product quality improvement; there is a big gap between labor productivity and industrial added value of all employees and developed countries; lack of influential international brands; Homogeneity and low-price competition are serious and corporate sales have a low profit margin. The third is the industrial structure: the proportion of the output value of the producer service industry is relatively low. There is a certain gap between the enterprise's equipment package and the total project contracting capacity and foreign enterprises; the supporting development of upstream and downstream related industries of energy equipment is not balanced; the management means and level, professional talent reserve The ability to negotiate key components, supporting capabilities, and procurement of basic materials is relatively weak; weak industrial top-level design capabilities and departmentalized block management have led to serious industry duplication and low industrial concentration. Fourth, standards, certifications, accreditation and conformity assessment systems: Insufficient testing and testing capabilities for special environmental conditions such as “three highs”, damp heat, and earthquake resistance; product reliability standards and evaluation systems have not yet been established; existing certification and testing organizations have not Accredited by international authorities.

The electrical appliance industry is an indispensable pillar industry for the development of the national economy and has a strong radiation and stimulating effect on related industries. The technical content of electrical industry products is relatively high, and the downstream users are relatively concentrated. The development speed is greatly affected by the macro environment. Therefore, the choice of electric appliance industry development strategy depends on the energy development environment and market demand orientation both at home and abroad.

In terms of the domestic market, energy equipment is gradually developing in the direction of “high-capacity, high-parameter, high-efficiency, and ultra-clean emissions”; the level of intelligence in energy equipment has been continuously improved, and the scope of smart manufacturing applications has been continuously expanding; for small and medium-sized products , pay attention to product reliability, energy saving, environmental protection progress. In the international market, the sales model has shifted from the single equipment purchase in the past to the provision of complete solutions, and business models such as EPC and BOT have gradually increased.

The development priorities of the “13th Five-Year Plan” for the electrical industry include promoting the development of energy equipment to “large capacity, high parameters, high efficiency, and ultra-clean emissions”, and continuously improving product reliability and intelligence; vigorously developing clean, efficient, ultra-clean emissions of coal Technology to realize the autonomy of high-head hydropower units, nuclear power units, pumped-storage units and heavy-duty gas turbines; orderly promote independent research and development and industrialization of wind energy, solar energy utilization equipment and large-capacity energy storage devices suitable for China's national conditions; The core technologies of high-voltage large-capacity AC/DC transmission equipment, flexible DC transmission systems and devices; promote the independent research and development of power transmission and transformation and user-end equipment for smart grids; focus on breakthroughs in key components such as high-power power electronic components and high-temperature superconducting materials. Material manufacturing and application technology.

According to the statistics of the China Electrical Appliance Industry Association, the amount of copper used in motor business with a main business income of 100 million yuan is about 100 tons. The motor industry can be broadly divided into the generator industry and the electric motor industry. Their copper use ratio is about 1:7.

In recent years, the amount of copper used in the wire and cable industry has become saturated. This has a lot to do with the widespread use of new technologies and new materials in the communications industry. According to the statistics of the China Electrical Equipment Industry Association, the main business income of 100 million yuan is about 450 tons of copper wire and cable.

According to the statistics of China Wire and Cable Branch of China Electrical Equipment Industry Association, copper used in magnet wire industry accounted for 25% of copper used in the entire wire and cable industry. Copper used in communication cable industry accounted for 3% of copper used in wire and cable industry, and bare copper wire industry. The amount of copper used accounts for 7% of the total copper used in the wire and cable industry. According to statistics from the High Voltage Switch Branch of the China Electrical Equipment Industry Association, the amount of copper used for high-voltage switches of 100 million yuan is about 70 tons.

According to the statistics of the China Electrical Appliance Industry Association, the main business income of 100 million yuan is about 50 tons of copper used in the transformer industry.

By soliciting opinions from experts in the industry and combining with the development of the electric appliance industry, it is expected that the annual growth rate of copper used in the electric appliance industry from 2015 to 2020 will be around 2%.